Slightly academic exercise given the subsequent market moves following the weekend and the US debt ceiling vote.
However, in July the portfolio did manage an increase of 0.06% (5.08% year to date), versus the FTSE 100 which fell 2.2% (-2.61% year to date).
But, subsequent to that as I look today the portfolio has pulled back from July's close by 2.41% (giving just 2.55% year to date) and the FTSE has retreated by 4.37% (giving -6.86% year to date.
On the plus side it looks like the virtual portfolio is performing better than the FTSE up or down as the sectors most closely geared to current events (debts, growth and recovery), swing wildly. As it stands, mining and banking do not have a presence in the portfolio.
It could be that the benefit of dividends are also coming through in the portfolio with its forecast 3.41% yield (to be re-invested of course).
Looking back at July, dividends came through from Rolls-Royce and Tesco in the month but were countered by share price retreats in Aviva and National Grid.
Apple, Microsoft, National Grid, Scottish and Southern, Centrica, IG and Rolls-Royce all reported in the month with mixed receptions initially but overall market fears over sovereign debt and global recovery won out.
As anticipated, Apple did briefly record a 100%+ capital gain for the investment which was the first such milestone in the 19 months of the portfolio.
Scottish and Southern Energy also went ex. dividend in the month.
Cisco remains the biggest concern (or work in progress), but I think I am resigned to giving it longer on the basis that it is still growing and retains significant market share and, it could well be trawling the bottom of this particular underperformance with a forecast PE ratio of just 9.7.
Coming to the chart it looks like the end of April was a significant milestone in the current year as that looks to be the point where the portfolio's performance (and positive trend) has started to diverge from that of the FTSE100.
In the 19 months since its inception the index is up by 32.8% and, as the chart shows, the FTSE100 is up just 7.43% over the same period.
Overall then, the portfolio feels healthy with Cisco the biggest concern along with Apple's ability to maintain its performance. There is another chunky dividend due this month from National Grid so the pattern of the portfolio's performance looks to be maintaining itself.
But, it still feels like a long way to go before the portfolio becomes self sustaining and able to potentially generate an income.
I am starting to think about gaps in the portfolio though, which would be from a strategic and diversification perspective, but need to weigh up the potential benefits of further investments against the manageable number of holdings which is now 16. There is also the consideration of whether there is a threshold on diversification which when crossed results in underperformance.
Gap wise, I am probably also looking to consumer products, industrials, and pharmaceuticals, and ideally, these will have exposure to fast growing economies like China and India (as opposed to direct investment).
Hopefully, this will be ahead of the next stage of growth or recovery (now there's an idea).
- April 2011: Portfolio Update
However, in July the portfolio did manage an increase of 0.06% (5.08% year to date), versus the FTSE 100 which fell 2.2% (-2.61% year to date).
But, subsequent to that as I look today the portfolio has pulled back from July's close by 2.41% (giving just 2.55% year to date) and the FTSE has retreated by 4.37% (giving -6.86% year to date.
On the plus side it looks like the virtual portfolio is performing better than the FTSE up or down as the sectors most closely geared to current events (debts, growth and recovery), swing wildly. As it stands, mining and banking do not have a presence in the portfolio.
It could be that the benefit of dividends are also coming through in the portfolio with its forecast 3.41% yield (to be re-invested of course).
Looking back at July, dividends came through from Rolls-Royce and Tesco in the month but were countered by share price retreats in Aviva and National Grid.
Apple, Microsoft, National Grid, Scottish and Southern, Centrica, IG and Rolls-Royce all reported in the month with mixed receptions initially but overall market fears over sovereign debt and global recovery won out.
As anticipated, Apple did briefly record a 100%+ capital gain for the investment which was the first such milestone in the 19 months of the portfolio.
Scottish and Southern Energy also went ex. dividend in the month.
Cisco remains the biggest concern (or work in progress), but I think I am resigned to giving it longer on the basis that it is still growing and retains significant market share and, it could well be trawling the bottom of this particular underperformance with a forecast PE ratio of just 9.7.
| Virtual Portfolio - Merchant Adventurer's Index | |||||||||||||||
| Forecast | 1 month | YTD | 19 Months | ||||||||||||
| % holding | Div. yield | % gain | % gain | % gain | |||||||||||
| R-R | 29.73% | 2.64% | 1.16% | 4.74% | 34.95% | ||||||||||
| National Grid | 18.11% | 6.56% | -2.53% | 7.96% | 10.00% | ||||||||||
| Inv. Perp. High Inc. *** | 7.06% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 5.95% | 18.72% | ||||||||||
| Aviva | 4.67% | 6.77% | -9.16% | 1.48% | 6.21% | ||||||||||
| BP | 4.65% | 3.80% | 0.51% | -0.98% | 5.91% | ||||||||||
| Apple ** | 4.18% | 0.00% | 13.53% | 14.89% | 96.08% | ||||||||||
| IG Group | 3.23% | 4.81% | 1.42% | -13.22% | 47.11% | ||||||||||
| William Hill | 2.97% | 3.97% | 1.09% | 35.27% | 8.60% | ||||||||||
| BG Group | 2.91% | 1.02% | 2.12% | 11.42% | 32.20% | ||||||||||
| Centrica | 2.65% | 4.98% | -5.17% | -7.54% | 20.96% | ||||||||||
| Morrisons | 2.53% | 3.70% | -2.28% | 8.71% | 14.97% | ||||||||||
| Scottish and Southern | 2.49% | 6.20% | -6.24% | 6.69% | 13.56% | ||||||||||
| Microsoft ** | 2.36% | 1.94% | 2.85% | -6.86% | 8.03% | ||||||||||
| Tesco | 2.11% | 4.07% | -4.61% | -3.88% | -3.87% | ||||||||||
| BAE Systems | 2.09% | 6.07% | -4.55% | -7.88% | -4.78% | ||||||||||
| Cisco ** | 1.61% | 0.29% | -0.15% | -25.08% | -26.48% | ||||||||||
| Cash | 6.65% | 0.00% | 8.00% | 20.66% | |||||||||||
| 100.00% | 3.41% | ||||||||||||||
| 1 Month | YTD | 19 Months | |||||||||||||
| Virtual Portfolio gain (incl. Div.) | 0.06% | 5.08% | 32.85% | ||||||||||||
| FTSE gain (excl. Div.) | -2.20% | -2.61% | 7.43% | ||||||||||||
| - 1 month gain 5945.71 - 5815.19 | |||||||||||||||
| - YTD gain 5971.01 - 5815.19 | |||||||||||||||
| - 19 month gain 5412.88 - 5815.19 | |||||||||||||||
| Transactions: | |||||||||||||||
| 05/07/2011 | Dividends | Rolls-Royce @ 9.6p per share | |||||||||||||
| 08/07/2011 | Dividends | Tesco @ 10.09p per share | |||||||||||||
| Notes: | |||||||||||||||
| * US Dividends are adjusted for exchange rate and 15% withholding tax) | |||||||||||||||
| ** Sterling : Dollar exchange rate = £1: $1.6433 as at 29/07/11 | |||||||||||||||
| *** Invesco Perpetual Accumulation units (i.e. Dividends re-invested) | |||||||||||||||
Coming to the chart it looks like the end of April was a significant milestone in the current year as that looks to be the point where the portfolio's performance (and positive trend) has started to diverge from that of the FTSE100.
In the 19 months since its inception the index is up by 32.8% and, as the chart shows, the FTSE100 is up just 7.43% over the same period.
 |
| Click to enlarge, back button to return. |
But, it still feels like a long way to go before the portfolio becomes self sustaining and able to potentially generate an income.
I am starting to think about gaps in the portfolio though, which would be from a strategic and diversification perspective, but need to weigh up the potential benefits of further investments against the manageable number of holdings which is now 16. There is also the consideration of whether there is a threshold on diversification which when crossed results in underperformance.
Gap wise, I am probably also looking to consumer products, industrials, and pharmaceuticals, and ideally, these will have exposure to fast growing economies like China and India (as opposed to direct investment).
Hopefully, this will be ahead of the next stage of growth or recovery (now there's an idea).
Links to previous Portfolio updates:
- May 2011: Portfolio Update- April 2011: Portfolio Update
Post Title
→July 2011: Portfolio Update.
Post URL
→https://national-grid-news.blogspot.com/2011/08/july-2011-portfolio-update.html
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