by Michael Smith (Veshengro)
I must say that each and every time I hear about any plans by Defra I get as worried as when it was still called MAAF and, at times, even more so. The MAAF used Maafaleese but Defralese is worse.
Roads built to the same standards as the scorching south of France; fish moved from the overheated Lake District to cooler waters in Scotland; lighthouses threatened by rising seas.
From measures in use already to seemingly far-fetched scenarios for the future, these are some of the findings in the first batch of climate adaptation plans submitted to the environment ministry Defra.
Under the Climate Change Act, 91 major organisations responsible for key aspects of national infrastructure have to explain how they will cope if the climate alters as forecast.
The latest projections suggest the potential for major change – for example that it is "very likely" that southern England will on average be 2.2-6.8C warmer by the 2080s.
That range of possible warming reveals the huge uncertainties inherent in climate forecasting. Nevertheless the aim of the studies is to ensure that long-term planning takes account of the possible risks. No one, however, seems to even dares to suggest that things could be the other way around. I will later on.
Rocky road
Many of the ideas for adaptation have been aired before but this is the first time they have been brought together in a formal set of strategies.
In its plan, the Highways Agency recognises the risk of roads deteriorating more rapidly in higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather. And, if our winter of 2010/2011 is anything to go by they will deteriorate very quick with the kind of frost that we have had.
One solution, adopted in 2008, is to copy the specifications for road foundations used in southern France. But those roads are not prepared for the cold. We must employ a mix of those and those of Scandinavia; for that is the range our temperatures swing between summer and winter.
The Environment Agency warns that rising temperatures will be stressful for wildlife - with fish at the greatest risk. But the rise could also be followed, annually, by a severe drop. Work that one out for animals, please, and also for farming.
It raises the radical option of relocating some fish species from the Lake District to habitats further north where the waters will be cooler.
The Trinity House Lighthouse Authority – which runs 68 lighthouses on the English and Welsh coasts – reckons the majority of its installations will face no impact. But it details four lighthouses that would be threatened by sea-level rise unless action is taken, with a further nine whose landing docks may be at risk in future.
Trinity House estimates that five lighthouses may suffer from the erosion of the cliffs they stand on - but points out that this process may have nothing to do with climate change.
Waves on the track
Network Rail raises concerns about keeping passengers cool in heatwaves, ensuring that rail lines do not buckle in high temperatures and preventing embankments collapsing as a result of flooding. Consideration also must be given, in my opinin, to the possibilities of serious cold spells which, also, could cause a serious problem to the running of the trains, as we have seen more than once already.
One of its most vulnerable stretches of track is on the south Devon coast between Dawlish and Teignmouth where storms have often seen waves break over the line.
Network Rail says the sea level at this point has risen 30cm since 1840 and is projected to rise by a further 70cm by 2050 and 1.45m by 2100. The risk of the track being 'overtopped' is predicted to increase by 50% by 2020 and to treble by 2080.
It has already invested £8.5m in the past 10 years in fortifying the sea defences and establishing an early warning system to watch for rockfalls from the cliffs.
Network Rail believes it is "ahead of the game" by planning for future changes but warns that any adaptation will need to be dove-tailed with flood protection schemes for neighbouring Teignmouth and Dawlish.
National Grid has submitted two reports – for gas and electricity. On gas, it warns that pipes could become exposed through subsidence or erosion and it is working to replace old metal pipes with ones made of polyethylene.
On electricity, it identifies 13 substations – unnamed – that are vulnerable to a one-in-a-century flood – a relatively high risk for such important assets. Only 13? They , just have not counted them all. Oh, and just for the record, 90% of all substations are unmanned. They are automatic transformer stations.
The 2007 floods had provided a wake-up for the industry when a vital substation at Walham in Gloucester – serving tens of thousands of households – was almost overwhelmed.
Floods, caused by torrential rain in the last couple of years have, more than once, inundated water treatment plants and water works, resulting in people being told not to drink the water and to boil it for cooking and brushing of teeth.
I would like to, however, draw people's attention, and that of Defra, to the fact that the, to all intents and purposes, the magnetic north pole is moving and this means that, the pole is not really moving but that the Earth's axis has begun to tilt. Which way I am not sure as yet.
What does this mean?
It means that, and the bodies concerned have already issues a warning, that the Atlantic oscillation could be changing permanently – it has already but it could just be temporarily, it is thought – thus sending the Gulf Stream to somewhere else and without the Gulf Stream we better winterize our roads than worry about making them deal with temperatures as in the South of France.
The winter of 2010/2011 could just be the beginning of problems that could be headed our way if the Gulf Stream has gone south, literally, as we must not forget that, to all intents and purposes, London is on about the same latitude as is Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Now think where Edinburgh fits in; the top area of the Hudson Bay, that is.
While it just could be that summers get a little warmer in Britain and a little dryer than we have been used to over the last centuries, the possibility is there, unless the Atlantic oscillation changes again, that the British winters could be rather severe and while they will, more than likely, not reach the severity of those of central Canada, seeing that the UK is, basically, an island, they could, nevertheless, be very cold.
Our infrastructure just cannot handle this, and it is regardless of whether we talk about water supplies, electricity, gas or transportation.
Thus we better prepare for two side to the coin rather than just one. If we don't, we will be in trouble.
The winter of 2010/2011 has destroyed crops in the fields that were sown too late for what came our way and set to be harvested too late. We must take a leaf out of the book of our European colleagues, such as Germany as to when to bring in the sugar beets and the Brussels and other cabbages.
To sum up the issue about the tilt – possible – of the Earth's axis – and the polar shift is simple; we are in serious trouble and we better look at how to prepare for the coming issues and how to live with it.
I have no idea as to how at this present moment other than saying that things may be rather choppy and different from what we have known and that for growing your garden, as to foods, you better look at in what zone Toronto and Wisconsin are.
© 2011
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→Defra's UK climate-proofing plans unveiled
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